I think I started doing these monthly recaps back when the Braves weren’t any good, during the dark rebuild years. Over the past half-decade-plus, I’ve been very fortunate in that an exercise meant to highlight the few good things (and many expected bad things) from those years has become more of a recording of how the Braves dominated, month after month. Since their run of division titles began, I’ve only had to write a monthly recap about a losing month six times. I haven’t had to do so at all for the last eleven seasonal months. But, now, May 2024 is in the books, and here I am, again. It was not a good month.
In the grand scheme of things, a 13-14 month isn’t all that bad. Even a good, perhaps a great, team is very likely to go under .500 for at least one four-week stretch. This stretch also came early enough that the Braves have plenty of time to undo its damage; perhaps more importantly, the Braves were so good in April that May didn’t even do that much damage to the team’s hopes — at least not as much as it could have were 2024 going to be a reprise of 2022, where the Braves struggled until the summer.
So, why was the stretch bad? Well, pretty much the offense. The Braves’ 88 wRC+ in May barely placed them outside the bottom five; a total of 1.9 fWAR among position players for the month gave them the 23rd-most. It wasn’t entirely the team’s fault, as the Braves’ .318 xwOBA for May ranked 12th overall. But, unsurprisingly to anyone who watched the month closely, they had the league’s second-biggest xwOBA underperformance in the 27 games they played. They finished in the top ten in barrels (seventh) for May, but again, in something that shouldn’t be surprising, were 28th in the rate of barrels becoming hits (61 percent, compared to a league-average rate for May of 67 percent), and were dead last in the rate of barrels becoming homers (34 percent, compared to a league-average rate of 45 percent for May).
That sort of punishment for hitting the ball well only ended up not entirely sinking the team because the pitching was phenomenal. The pitching staff accrued the third-most fWAR in May, behind only the Phillies and Padres. The rotation finished fifth (sixth in ERA-, third in FIP- and xFIP-); the bullpen finished 14th (fifth in ERA-, 15th in FIP-, 25th in xFIP-), though in all honesty it’s hard to really blame the bullpen for pitching poorly given that the lack of wins made it so a lot of innings were simply eaten in games the Braves didn’t contest late. (Less than half of the team’s May relief innings were thrown by guys the team considers to be its “pitching with a lead” contingent.)
Put those things together, and the Braves won as many series (four) as they lost in the month. They had a four-game winning streak that was cancelled out by a four-game losing streak, but otherwise never won three games in a row. The biggest problems really occurred in the latter half of the month: from May 15-on, the Braves lost 10 of 16, despite the best pitching staff in baseball in that span. The offense wasn’t really any worse (87 wRC+ compared to 88 for the month), but the sequencing really killed them on both sides of the ball.
Overall, the month looked like this:
:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25473712/Screenshot_2024_06_01_102649.png "For the first time in a long while, Braves muddle through malaise in May (1)")
In other words, the Braves really did whiff it. The schedule suggested 15-12 or 16-11, and they went 13-14. Things like the Ray Kerr-Trevor Williams and Max Fried-Matt Waldron matchups becoming losses were big blows; the only thing even vaguely upsetting this was winning AJ Smith-Shawver’s first start of the year before he went on the Injured List. Speaking of injuries, Ronald Acuña Jr. tearing his other ACL was probably the biggest blow this month, even beyond the 13-14 record in and of itself. His absence for the remainder of the season is estimated to subtract something like three wins from the team’s end-of-season record, and constitutes a loss of about 15 percent in terms of divisional odds, and about three percent in terms of playoff odds.
So, where do the Braves stand now? At 6.5 games back of the Phillies, with division odds slightly better than 1-in-3, they have an uphill climb to earn a seventh straight NL East title. Their playoff odds are still very close to 100 percent; given the leaguewide mediocrity in the face of expanded playoffs working as intended, the NL’s sixth-best team has a .500 record, 4.5 games behind the Braves. It’s very possible that this is the year we have a .500 team or worse make the playoffs; if not this year, it’s probably going to happen at some point soon.
And now, onto completely meaningless awards.
Totally Meaningless Ivan Award for May 2024 Performance - Position Players
As Kris wrote a few days ago, it’s not really clear where the 2024 Braves would be without Marcell Ozuna, and none of us probably want to find out. Ozuna didn’t quite replicate his April, with a 162 wRC+ instead of his April 189 mark, but both of those are pretty insane. His xwOBA also fell, from .446 to .413, and he also recorded less WPA (from 1.20 to 1.00), but really, there was no one stepping up to challenge him for this particular title.
WPA-wise, only two Braves batters even finished the month with positive WPA; Ozuna’s 1.00 is over four times greater than Jarred Kelenic’s 0.23. (The third guy? Zack Short. Heh.) Only three guys finished with above-average batting value for the month, too, and only three guys had an xwOBA above .350; Ozuna finished well ahead of the other two guys in this respect (Matt Olson and Acuña).
The above makes it seem like Ozuna was just the default choice amid some real slim pickings, but that’s not entirely accurate, as he was still really good. He was still a top-50 position player in terms of fWAR for the month despite eating the DH penalty in full, had the 15th-best wRC+ among the 177 players with the most PAs, and finished just barely inside the top ten on an xwOBA basis. He was really good in May, just not... the best.
Totally Meaningless Ivan Award for May 2024 Performance - Starting Pitchers
On the flip side, I do get to highlight someone very obvious here that actually was the best in May: Chris Sale. Putting up a whopping 1.7 fWAR in five May starts, Sale was just ridiculous. Like, you-can’t-even-do-this-in-a-video-game ridiculous. The Braves won all five of his starts, in which his worst outing included an 8/1 K/BB ratio and a single run charged to him in seven innings. We are literally talking three starts with a 9/0 K/BB ratio, one start with a 10/1 K/BB ratio, and one start with an 8/1 K/BB ratio, in five consecutive appearances. It’s an absolutely bonkers run he’s on right now, and a few more games like this and Sale will probably be the pitching fWAR leader for the season as a whole.
I kind of don’t know what else to write here, as Sale was just too good. So I’ll just say it again: 45/2 K/BB ratio in five starts. I mean, what even is that?
Totally Meaningless Ivan Award for May 2024 Performance - Relief Pitchers
The bullpen didn’t really do much in May either way, as games were more about the inability to score runs than anything else. That said, I want to highlight two guys here. First, I want to thank Raisel Iglesias for not making a bad month worse. Iglesias didn’t actually pitch particularly well, 67/101/113, and his actual save opportunities weren’t really that interesting (only two shutdowns in seven save opportunities), but he also never had a meltdown and his one negative-WPA outing was a Manfredball single-run thing in the tenth. So, that helps.
But, also quite worthy of recognition here is Dylan Lee, who led the relief corps with 0.3 fWAR, and posted a 18/37/83 line in nine appearances spanning 12 innings. Lee has had a tough job this year as essentially a long relief convert who can be asked to either eat innings or get meaningful outs without any real consistency, but in May, he had a 3/0 shutdown/meltdown ratio and only ended up being charged with a single run for the whole month. (He did pour fire on a Bryce Elder start at one point, but that game was basically already a blowout at that point.)
Lee and Iglesias were the only two Braves relievers to finish the month with A) positive WPA and B) no meltdowns.
Best Offensive Play - An actual homer
Perhaps the biggest part of the reason this month felt lame is that the Braves just didn’t really get any big hits. Their highest-WPA play, which is below, had a lower WPA than ten total such plays in April. So, here it is, Ronald Acuña Jr. hitting a game-tying homer off Daniel Hudson... in a game the Braves would go on to lose, anyway.
That the Braves lost this game despite outhomering the Dodgers 2-0 was, well, par for the course in May. Even when they did all the right stuff and got the right results for it, it was still a struggle.
Best Run-Stopping Play - Pitcher’s best friend aids Minter
A.J. Minter’s May was forgettable, as he pitched pretty poorly, gave up another walkoff homer, and eventually hit the shelf with a hip injury. After giving up that turned-a-lead-into-a-loss walkoff to Brandon Nimmo on May 12, he went right back out there on May 13 with a 2-0 lead in the ninth against the Cubs, gave up a single, and then walked a batter. Woof.
But, fortunately for him, Ian Happ proceeded to hit a first-pitch fastball below the zone into a tailor made double play, and Minter was able to lock down the game with a fly ball to center.
Most Dominant Single Game Offensive Performance
Again, it’s fitting that A) this performance isn’t really all that remarkable and B) it came in a loss. On May 12, Marcell Ozuna went 2-for-3 with two singles and a walk. Not all that exciting, right? Well, the walk, in the first inning, loaded the bases with two outs (but the Braves didn’t score). The first single, in the sixth, gave the Braves a 2-1 lead by scoring a runner from second. After the Mets tied it, the second single, in the eighth, did the same thing — another grounder through the infield, and another runner scored from second to give the Braves another lead. Then they lost the game. I’m not even sure it’s worth including video because, two grounders, woo?
Most Dominant Single Game Starting Pitching Performance
Oh, but this, we’ll add some video for. Max Fried has been nothing short of dominant since a rocky start to his 2024 season, and he added another feather to his cap of absolutely stymying opposing offenses on May 28, firing eight innings with a 6/1 K/BB ratio against the Nationals.
While it’s easy to point to pretty much anything Chris Sale did as being more dominant in a context-neutral fashion, I like this Fried start here because: A) almost the entirety of it came in a scoreless game, and B) the Nationals ran a .350 BABIP against him for the game, with literally eight flares or flare-type contacts in the process. Not only did Fried persevere, he dominated anyway, giving the team a chance to win with a modest two-run outburst in the seventh.
Most Dominant Relief Pitching Performance
Another one that happened in a loss! In fact, that same Brandon Nimmo walkoff homer off A.J. Minter loss. Before that happened, Jesse Chavez had a quotidian yet notable outing, where he came into a tie game in the seventh with the go-ahead run on first, gave up a single, but then got two outs to end the frame, and also retired the first batter of the eighth before giving way to Dylan Lee. Yes, it is kind of sad that this is what qualifies as the most dominant relief pitching performance, but as noted, there really wasn’t much of an opportunity for anything else to register here because the Braves’ lack of punch meant they didn’t have a lot of opportunity to scrabble through tie games or anything.
Most Crushed Dinger
In a consistent theme for this monthly recap, this absolute mash job by Matt Olson off Dylan Cease also came in a loss. The homer actually gave the Braves a 4-0 lead, but they ended up blowing a 5-0 lead when all was said and done.
This homer in and of itself is kind of interesting because it shows one of the ways in which Olson’s 2024 is not quite living up to his 2023. Last year, Olson began to substantially hunt and destroy breaking pitches in May, only to then shift to mashing up-and-away fastballs as pitchers tried to adjust from what they thought he was still sticking to. This year, he hasn’t really committed to hunting one or the other for prolonged stretches, and his choices haven’t always aligned to what he’s gotten from pitchers, resulting in an offensive dropoff.
In a not-so-great month, a lot of the good stuff happened in losses... as did a lot of the not-so-good stuff.
Worst Offensive Result - We will never stop talking about Austin Riley’s WPA Vortex
The Braves’ had a final chance to avoid a walkoff, extra-inning loss in their May 3 game against the Dodgers, but instead, this happened:
It was the third of three straight sliders Riley saw in that plate appearance, and the contact (sub-75 mph) was as pathetic as befit the situation. Amusingly, 2024 is, so far, the year where Riley has his highest clutch score since his rookie season in 2019, but it’s still negative.
Worst Pitching Result - Yes, it’s time for another one of these from A.J. Minter
After he gave up the homer shown below, Minter gave a media quote that said something like, “Aside from the homers, I’m the best reliever in baseball.” Well, A.J., that’s not quite true because Mason Miller exists, but Minter did have a 78 xFIP- coming into this game. That said, Minter has a HR/FB of over 19 percent this season, but his career rate is eight percent, and he’s had a double digit percentage once in his past seven seasons. Baseball is cruel, not just because of how the homers are tormenting Minter when it seems to take a Herculean effort to get one out when a Brave is batting, but also because of what Brandon Nimmo did here.
Worst Single-Game Hitting Performance
Matt Olson, May 21, in a one-run walkoff loss at Wrigley Field. First inning: infield pop with two outs and a man on second. Third inning, groundout. Fifth inning, strikeout with a man on first and none out while up a run. Seventh inning, tie game, runners on first and second, none out: strikeout. Tenth inning, first guy to bat in extra innings: comebacker to the pitcher. Just a brutal day, and no one picked him up, either, as none of the batters behind him drove in any of the runners he failed to advance or score.
Worst Single-Game Starting Pitching Performance
In retrospect, this was a fairly obvious choice, because as I like doing here from time to time, Charlie Morton wasn’t even having a patented horrible Charlie Morton outing in this one. Instead, it’s all about context.
May 27, with the Nationals coming to Atlanta to kick off a four-game series, was the first game after it was announced that Acuña was done for the season with a tear of his left ACL. Morton took the mound, and within four batters, the Nationals had two barrels, including one by former Brave Eddie Rosario, who is having a miserable season rivaling the one where he had eye surgery so far. The Braves were down 4-0 after an inning, 5-0 after two, and 6-0 after three. Two more runs scored in the sixth.
The kicker is that Morton didn’t really even pitch that poorly. He did give up a homer, but he also had a 7/2 K/BB ratio. While the .398 xwOBA he allowed in the game was the worst of his season to date, the real killer was the .515 wOBA the Nationals actually got out of it.
Worst Single-Game Relief Pitching Performance
Just like last month, you turn a lead into a loss with a walkoff homer, you get saddled with this. Sorry, A.J. Minter.
Most Crushed Dinger Allowed
You play Shohei Ohtani’s team in a month, chances are it’s gonna be Shohei Ohtani dingering off you. Minter didn’t exactly make it hard for him here, either.
See you next month!
And now, a slightly different note...
The calendar turning June is especially fun for me, because I’m going to be on parental leave for the summer. That means less (hopefully zero-ish) work, more baseball, but also more sitting around unable to fiddle with stuff than I usually manage, which is a little tough for me to deal with, because I don’t like sitting and not fiddling. I have some big and what I think are really cool ideas for baseball research that I’d like to knock out in the next three months, but one of the things that’s probably going to get in my way is that fundamentally it’s hard to type when there’s a baby on you.
So, if you are a fan of (1) (your own) unpaid labor; (2) manipulating sizable datasets; and, (3) think it would be fun to mess around with figuring out some baseball stuff that no one in the public sphere has really tried to, as far as I can tell, and you somehow made it to the end of this post, maybe let me know? I’m not really expecting anything, but this is probably going to be my only three-month period in the next forever where I actually get to think about this sort of stuff with the attention it requires, and it also happens to be one where I probably won’t be able to type, so... you get the idea. Boy, I wish we could manipulate a command line with our thoughts...
